Roger That

Monday, April 03, 2006

Is 2006 the year for the Tigers to roar?

It's April, and for Detroit Tigers fans, that means optimism is in the air.

Every year, no matter how bad the Tigers were the year before, or how many (or few) offseason moves were made, fans around the Motor City, talk show hosts, beat writers, and columnists say that if a, b, and c all happen, the Tigers could have a good year. Well, they haven't had a winning record since 1993, and they haven't made the postseason since Reagan was in office.

But why not give it another shot? There's no reason to be pessimistic. Why? Because it's a long season. 162 games. Six months. The later monotony and the hopelessness kick in, the better. So here goes: The Tigers could make the playoffs this season! I say this for three reasons.

1. Their bats. I was fortunate enough to attend a spring training game at the lovely Joker Marchant Stadium in Lakeland, Fla., this spring, and the Tigers smashed four home runs en route to a 15-2 victory over the New York Yankees. Yes, it was spring training. Yes, it was one game. But I think it showed where the Tigers potential problems will not lie this summer: at the plate. From 1 to 9, they have guys who can swing the bat. I'd say of the eleven hitters who will see substantial time, ten of them are good enough to hit .300 for a season. Will they all do it this year? No. I'm just trying to emphasize how talented they are from top to bottom. The only exception is Nook Logan, who happens to be my favorite Tiger. He's been called the fastest player in the bigs. He's a tremendous center fielder. But he has yet to show much skill with the wood in hand. If he can up his on-base percentage and hit more line drives, he'll be in the lineup more than last year, when he only made sporadic appearances.

2. Jim Leyland, the new manager. He won a World Series with the Florida Marlins in 1997. He was skipper of the great Pittburgh Pirates teams of the early '90s. The Detroit News calls him the most direct, no-fluff manager the Tigers have had in 30 years. So does that automatically make them a winner? No way. But it does say something. Alan Trammell, as much as Detroiters loved him for being a hell of shortstop, was a horrible manager. He refused to bunt the ball. He terribly mismanaged the bullpen. But he had never been a manager before, and stepping in cold turkey and building a winner is not easy to do (the exception: Ozzie Guillen and the 2005 World Champion Chicago White Sox). So Leyland has the experience. I'm hopeful he can help build some confidence. And if he is able to find a comfortable balance between manufacturing runs via small ball and letting these talented hitters swing away, the runs will cross the plate in masses.

3. The men on the hill, if they decide to coincide and have breakout years. What I mean is, there are four young hurlers who will be in the rotation, plus 41-year-old Kenny Rogers. I think we can count on him for 12-15 wins. Now if the younger guys -- led by Jeremy Bonderman, who arguably should have made the All-Star team last season -- can all have their best seasons ever, then the bats will have some support. Joining Bonderman are lefties Mike Maroth and Nate Robertson, and 23-year-old Justin Verlander, who will have rookie status this year after only two appearances last season. None of these guys are big names, but they do have good stuff. If they can establish a toughness (which Leyland will aid, being one of the better pitching managers there is, experts say), then a tone can be set for the season. The bullpen remains a question mark, though. With former Tiger Todd Jones back on staff for a second go-around in Detroit, he brings experience, but does he have good enough stuff to be a lock-it-up, reliable closer? I guess we'll see. My inkling is that for the Tigers to make a push, especially if they're in the thick of things come the trading deadline at the end of July, general manager Dave Dombrowski will have to find one or two solid relievers to propel this team through a pennant race and into the October postseason for the first time in two decades.

Whatever happens, baseball is back for Opening Day today. And while I'm a little more psyched for the Pistons' playoff run to begin, I can't wait to see if the Tigers can roar. Let's play ball!

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