Roger That

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

September to Remember? We shall see...

The Detroit Tigers lead the AL Central by four games over the Minnesota Twins. A few weeks ago, that lead felt a little more comfortable. But you know what ... if it weren't this close, it wouldn't be as fun. The Tigs begin a four-game series with the Twinkies Thursday in that tomb they call the Metrodome. And I'll be on the edge of my seat for each contest.

I said back in April that as long as the Tigers had some meaningful September games, the season would be a success. Now they do, and so far, the season sure has been successful. But man, is it hard not to get greedy. All Tigers fans, I'm sure, would feel a twinge of disappointment if they didn't roar on into October. But all we can do is sit back, cheer and see if they're worthy.

Here's what we can most certainly depend on:

PITCHING: Obviously, with a team ERA of 3.67 (lowest in the bigs), this has been the Tigers' strength. Kenny Rogers, who had a blip after the All-Star break, is back on track, as reliable as ever. The Cy Young talks for Justin Verlander have cooled off, but his stuff has not; he's as crafty and tough to hit as he was earlier in the season. Jeremy Bonderman is always dangerous, and while he hasn't been super consistent, he still has the fifth most strikeouts in the bigs, and one of the nastiest sliders, too.

There are some question marks. Nate Robertson has thrown some beachballs. In the same breath, he gets the worst run support of any of the Tigs' pitchers. Mike Maroth may not be back at all. Zach Miner has been sent to the pen. Wilfredo Ledezma has stepped in nicely. Can he pitch well in big games down the stretch, though? Question mark.

I won't say much about the relief, other than it's been stellar. I must apologize to Todd Jones, however. I lambasted him earlier this season. And even though he blew a game last week, he has, for the most part, been magnificent. Thirty-five saves? Holy Fu Manchu. (I still don't completely trust him, though. He throws a strike every pitch. You don't think the Yankees won't eat that up in a Playoff series?)

What's less consistent, and could hurt them:

HITTING: Free swingers and a lack of bunters (other than Ramon Santiago, who probably won't play a lot when Carlos Guillen gets healthy) make this a team that depends heavily on the three-run jimmy-jack. It's fun to watch them when they're spraying the ball, piling on run after run and putting together big innings. But that is RARE. (They're 10th in the ML in home runs, with 168. They're 27th in on-base percentage, at .327. Meanwhile, the Yankees, whom I fear more than any other team, lead the bigs in OBP by 10 points, at .364. That's huge.)

FIELDING: Brandon Inge makes tremendous plays night in and night out. Pudge is arguably the best catcher in baseball. But Magglio Ordonez in right and Guillen at short make me nervous every time a ball is hit their way. Maggs gets bad jumps and has a below average arm. Carlos is nonchalant -- which helps him a lot in making super tough plays -- but hurts him on the routine ground balls. (He leads the league in errors, with 25.)

What will definitely hurt them:

SPEED: Curtis Granderson is quick, but not terribly fast. Guillen leads the team in steals with 17, but even he looks slow as he rumbles on the basepaths with his pockets hanging out of his pants and his tobacco hanging out of his mouth. Craig Monroe and Marcus Thames aren't slow, but they're not fast. Pudge, ehh... he never runs hard. And then there's Dmitri Young, Maggs, and the slowest of the slow: Sean Casey. Jeez. With each of these guys, any ball hit in the infield, no matter how much it's bobbled, is an out. Maggs got thrown out tonight on a ball thrown over the first baseman's head and virtually into right field. There was no question he should have gone to second. Mario Impemba (of FSN) even said, "And he'll be safe at second." A bit premature, Mario, as the Mariners' catcher ran down the ball and gunned down a bewildered Maggs. And don't get me started on Casey. I can't tell if he's running hard -- perhaps he is -- but he makes Cecil Fielder look like Chet Lemon. Even slow bouncers up the middle -- tough plays for most everyone -- become routine outs. (I won't delve deeply into his gaffe when he got thrown out on a ball hit into left field; I mean, it was a clear case of misunderstanding. But come on. A 5-7-3 putout? Sean, my man. Let's stretch out a little more, or something.)

So there you have it. What to expect, what to worry about, what to hope they improve upon and what to simply write off as hopeless.

One more thing's for sure: It's going to be a hell of a month.

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