NBA Playoffs 2007

When the Pistons lost to the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals last year in six games, I felt like an era had ended. All the power and the confidence and the success of the four straight Central Division Championship years had suddenly evaporated. Miami was the new Alpha Dog.

At first, because of my almost undying optimism, it was hard for me to come to grips with their deterioration. But at some point in the offseason, I said to myself, "They're just not a championship caliber team any longer."

Now, 11 months later, Detroit is once again the Central Champs, and once again the No. 1 team in the East.

Optimism back, doubt gone. I truly believe the Pistons can hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy again in June. It won't come easy, but if everything falls into place (as I will elaborate on in a future post), I think Pistons fans will be planning another parade through Hart Plaza this summer.

Here are my Playoff predictions:

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals

Detroit over Orlando in 5
Cleveland over Washington in 4
New Jersey over Toronto in 7
Miami over Chicago in 6

Western Conference Quarterfinals

Dallas over Golden State in 5
Phoenix over LA Lakers in 6
San Antonio over Denver in 6
Houston over Utah in 7

Eastern Conference Semifinals

Detroit over Miami in 6
Cleveland over New Jersey in 7

Western Conference Semifinals

Dallas over Houston in 7
San Antonio over Phoenix in 6

Eastern Conference Finals

Detroit over Cleveland in 5

Western Conference Finals

San Antonio over Dallas in 7

NBA Finals

Detroit over San Antonio in 7

Maybe I'm still living in the 2005, but I think this rematch is a definite possibility. The Spurs have been overlooked all season long, and they're ready to surprise everybody. As for the Pistons, it will come down to consistent energy more than anything else. If they can find that, then the title's coming home to Motown. Let's go.

State of the Pistons Address (April 9)

"Easter Sunday was for Pistons fans who'd lost the faith." -- Keith Langlois, pistons.com

I couldn't have said it any better myself. In yesterday's 87-82 win, the Pistons proved that they're still the best team in the East. And with that proof, they set the bar no lower than reaching the NBA Finals for the third time in four years. Anything less would be a monumental disappointment.

They started out hot in this one, with Sheed on the bench nursing a sore finger (c'mon, Sheed). But Dyess made sure it wasn't an issue, stepping into the starting lineup and bringing some invigorating energy. Flying all over the floor, he got the others pumped up to play defense, and the Cavs' 16 turnovers proved that. Dyess finished with 18 points, 13 boards and 3 blocks. Great day.

It was clear in this game that Flip Saunders wanted to get the starters big minutes -- Tay, Chaunce and Rip each played 40-plus -- perhaps to experiment with possible rotations for the upcoming Playoffs. (They start in less than two weeks. Who's ready?)

As a result, however, Flip Murray, Carlos, J-Max and Lindsey each played single-digit minutes -- something that absolutely CANNOT happen in the Playoffs. I'll probably beat a dead horse here with this assertion for the next two months (I hope until mid-June), but it must be said: the Pistons' bench is a valuable, valuable asset that, if used carefully, can make this team unbeatable.

Of the five regular bench guys, they all bring tremendous energy every night, in their own way. I had frowned on Murray for a bulk of the season, but when Chaunce went down for a few games, he stepped in and played admirably. For a guy who isn't known as a terrific defender, his strength and his propensity for knocking away the basketball make him tough to shake when Saunders is employing that half-court trap that worked so beautifully a week ago versus Miami. Also in that game, Murray showed ability to get in the lane and make good decisions. If he continues to do this, all will be well.

I had also soured on Carlos earlier this year. He seemed to be too worried about getting his points and not focused enough on his true strength: defense. He can frustrate the D-Wades and the LeBrons with the best of 'em. And lately, he has been. His take-your-lunch steal on Antoine Walker last Sunday sealed the deal in a close game. What's more, he's letting the offense come to him rather than forcing a drive or taking an off-balance shot. He shoots when he's open, he drives when there's a seam, and most of the time -- lately, at least -- he's making the right decision.

With six games left in the regular season, Saunders must accomplish one task: find a consistent substitution pattern, and make sure everyone on the squad is comfortable with it. Sure, guys like Chaunce and Rip and Sheed want their minutes early so they can find a rhythm. But too often it comes at the expense of the entire team, which is why they always get off to slow starts. It's also why they rarely blow teams out of the water. For whatever reason, these three have been shooting a percentage slightly lower than what they shot a season ago, and I think that's a big reason why we have fewer wins.

But even if Linds, Los and Dyess come spell Chaunce, Rip and Sheed at the four-minute mark of the first quarter, that gives the Big 3 eight minutes to get going. And if they're REALLY going, then Saunders can leave 'em in there.

The big thing the bench can do is change the tempo of the game by forcing turnovers and pushing the rock. The starters have had a lot of success in the half court. The bench guys can ratchet it up and keep the opponents off balance.

Whatever the pattern, I hope Saunders finds it soon, and I hope it's not like what he did Sunday against Cleveland -- even though we won. (That was due in large part to Tay's lockdown defense on the Chosen One, LeBron James, aka Anti-Clutch.) ...

... One Random Thought:

Have you noticed the evolution/devolution of Chris Webber's game? He's still dangerously effective on the offensive end, yet I think he left his explosiveness of old somewhere in Arco Arena five years ago. He has savvy around the basket comparable to Tim Duncan. His up-fakes, soft touch and clever footwork make this C-Webb as tough to guard as the one who rattled rims and stuck his tongue out as a youngster at Michigan. Well, maybe not quite as tough.

Still, it's fun to notice this transformation because Michael Jordan did the same thing. After he came back wearing the 45, he wasn't nearly as explosive as he was in the late '80s and early '90s. So he developed that impossible-to-guard fadeaway J. You know the rest.