Roger That

Friday, June 29, 2007

New Pistons, and NBA Draft thoughts

There's no doubt about it: Joe D hasn't had the best success in the NBA Draft. Mateen. Darko. Rodney White. Come on. But still, he has kept the Pistons in the upper echelon of the NBA for the bulk of this decade, so I have confidence in his decisions -- at least when they are first made. That's why I'm excited about Rodney Stuckey becoming a Piston. Not excited to the extent that I'll place my order for a Stuckey No. 3 jersey any time soon, but excited because I believe he can be a solid backup for Rip in the upcoming season.

I also liked the Aaron Afflalo pick at 27. Stuckey was high on everyone's board, so if Joe had taken Afflalo at 15, Stuck wouldn't have been around a few picks later. But since Afflalo was down on everyone's radar, his availability at 27 was pretty much assured. Now it's up to these two cats to compete. It's hard to predict who will be better. Stuckey is D-Wade-esque. But he played in a lower-tier conference and his big-game potential is questionable. Afflalo was a First-Team All-America selection, Player of the Year in the Pac-10, and the 17th leading scorer of all-time at America's premier basketball school. Pretty, pretty, pretty good.

Joe D said he wanted his pick(s) to come in and play right away. And I think one of these guys will. But not both. (My early money's on Stuckey to stick around.) Potentially, if Joe D decides not to shake things up significantly, our rotation next season could look like this:

PG Chaunce, Backup Flip Murray.
SG Rip, Backup Stuckey/Afflalo
SF Tay, Backup Amir Johnson
PF Maxiell, Backup McDyess
C Sheed, Backup Dale, C-Webb, or ???

Could this win the NBA Finals? Probably not. I still don't think Flip Saunders and Sheed can co-exist harmoniously or productively. Sheed's apathy for anything Flip has to say rubs off on everyone else. The players' ostensible level of respect for the coach is remarkably low. Contrast that with the Spurs, who love playing for Popovich even though he yells and screams at them if they're lagging ... that's a championship dynamic. We don't have that.

So either Saunders or Sheed has to go. Joe D probably isn't done making moves this offseason. The first order of business: Re-sign Chaunce. I don't think that'll be a problem. I do question whether it's a decision that should be made without considering alternatives. If it's going to take $15 million a year for four years to get him, it might not be worth it. Chaunce is still one of the best point guards in the game. But he likes to keep the tempo slow. With guys like Maxiell and Amir and even Tay and Rip -- who love to run and never seem to get tired -- I wonder if a point guard with a similar ticker might suit us best ... in the long run, that is.

Don't get me wrong: I love Chauncey. I still think he's our best fit. But if he's back, that means we need to build around him. And as things are with our current personnel, Joe D would need to pull a few more strings to get us back to where we want to be: on top.

As for the rest of the NBA Draft, a few thoughts:

-- I thought the Hawks made off like bandits with both Al Horford and Acie Law. They clearly needed a point guard, but if they had taken Mike Conley at No. 3, they would have had to take a big at No. 11, and someone of Horford's talent would have already been swooped. As I see it, Law and Conley are equally talented -- in different ways. Conley's more of a passer, Law more of a scorer. Who will in the end be a better pro? My guess is Law, simply based on his big-game heroics last season. But Conley sure can see the floor. Time will tell...

-- There's another Anderson Varejao in the Central Division, and he's wearing a Bulls jersey now. Chicago drafted Joakim Noah at No. 9, and his floppy-haired theatrics are sure to annoy me just as Varejao's have for the last two years. Not happy with how that played out...

-- I think Seattle's new GM is rolling the dice by trading Ray Allen to the Celts. Now he has 6'9'' Kevin Durant (the next T-Mac and the next KG, if that's possible); he has the 6'9'' traveling Jeff Green from G'Town; and he has the capabilities to re-sign the 6'9'' Rashard Lewis now that Allen's gone. (An aside: It's a shame Seattle could never find more talent with which to surround Ray. He's their all-time leading scorer, the best pure shooter in the NBA, and now he's cast away in a deal that people outside of Seattle and Boston are barely even recognizing. If the Sonics had ever had a legit post threat or another big-time scorer, Ray could have camped on the wing and nailed 3's all game, every game. Instead, he was asked to score from all over, and as a result, he shot a poor FG percentage. That's why I secretly wished to see him in a Pistons uni surrounded by Chaunce and Tay and Sheed and Maxiell and Amir and all of them. I think he'd flourish.) Anyway, back to the previous argument. Seattle could now, potentially, have three 6'9'' scorers in their lineup. Unique, sure. Tough to guard, oh yeah. But able to win? That's the question.

-- I expected Milwaukee to draft Corey Brewer (in my opinion, the second most talented player in the draft behind Durant) at No. 6. Instead, they took Yi, the Chinese sensation. At least the Chinese think he's sensational. I think he's a joke that will never crack a starting lineup as long as he's in the league. Brewer would have made the Bucks' starting lineup a scary one, and much improved defensively:

PG Mo Williams
SG Michael Redd
SF Brewer
PF Charlie Villanueva
C Andrew Bogut

That looks like Playoffs to me. Now, with Yi, it looks like another lottery pick next year. And up in Minnesota, the T-Wolves added a future All-Star to a roster that may be shaken up in the days to come as the KG trade talks continue to swirl. Will Joe D place any calls to Kevin McHale?