Oh Six Picks

The 2006 NFL season begins tonight. While I'm not as big a fan of pro football as college, I do respect the way it's marketed, and I find it hard not to watch sometimes.

Many intriguing unknowns lie ahead for teams with new players, new coaches and players coming off injuries this year. I'll be following relatively closely through my fantasy league (which I won last year, thank you.)

My top dogs are Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson. I'm crossing my fingers that Palmer stays healthy and that celebration penalties don't count as negative points.

Now, without further ado, I shall unveil my predictions for the records of each NFL team, based on extremely minimal research by me. So don't bet any scrilla on these; they're just for fun.

NFC North

Minnesota (9-7)
Chicago (7-9)
Detroit (4-12)
Green Bay (4-12)

NFC South

Carolina (11-5)
Tampa Bay (11-5)
Atlanta (10-6)
New Orleans (3-13)

NFC East

NY Giants (11-5)
Dallas (10-6)
Philadelphia (8-8)
Washington (5-11)

NFC West

Seattle (11-5)
St. Louis (8-8)
San Francisco (6-10)
Arizona (5-11)

AFC North

Cincinnati (14-2)
Pittsburgh (12-4)
Baltimore (9-7)
Cleveland (4-12)

AFC South

Indianapolis (11-5)
Jacksonville (9-7)
Houston (5-11)
Tennessee (4-12)

AFC East

New England (11-5)
Miami (9-7)
NY Jets (7-9)
Buffalo (6-10)

AFC West

Denver (9-7)
San Diego (8-8)
Kansas City (8-8)
Oakland (7-9)

Super Bowl XLI in Miami: Cincinnati over Dallas

September to Remember? We shall see...

The Detroit Tigers lead the AL Central by four games over the Minnesota Twins. A few weeks ago, that lead felt a little more comfortable. But you know what ... if it weren't this close, it wouldn't be as fun. The Tigs begin a four-game series with the Twinkies Thursday in that tomb they call the Metrodome. And I'll be on the edge of my seat for each contest.

I said back in April that as long as the Tigers had some meaningful September games, the season would be a success. Now they do, and so far, the season sure has been successful. But man, is it hard not to get greedy. All Tigers fans, I'm sure, would feel a twinge of disappointment if they didn't roar on into October. But all we can do is sit back, cheer and see if they're worthy.

Here's what we can most certainly depend on:

PITCHING: Obviously, with a team ERA of 3.67 (lowest in the bigs), this has been the Tigers' strength. Kenny Rogers, who had a blip after the All-Star break, is back on track, as reliable as ever. The Cy Young talks for Justin Verlander have cooled off, but his stuff has not; he's as crafty and tough to hit as he was earlier in the season. Jeremy Bonderman is always dangerous, and while he hasn't been super consistent, he still has the fifth most strikeouts in the bigs, and one of the nastiest sliders, too.

There are some question marks. Nate Robertson has thrown some beachballs. In the same breath, he gets the worst run support of any of the Tigs' pitchers. Mike Maroth may not be back at all. Zach Miner has been sent to the pen. Wilfredo Ledezma has stepped in nicely. Can he pitch well in big games down the stretch, though? Question mark.

I won't say much about the relief, other than it's been stellar. I must apologize to Todd Jones, however. I lambasted him earlier this season. And even though he blew a game last week, he has, for the most part, been magnificent. Thirty-five saves? Holy Fu Manchu. (I still don't completely trust him, though. He throws a strike every pitch. You don't think the Yankees won't eat that up in a Playoff series?)

What's less consistent, and could hurt them:

HITTING: Free swingers and a lack of bunters (other than Ramon Santiago, who probably won't play a lot when Carlos Guillen gets healthy) make this a team that depends heavily on the three-run jimmy-jack. It's fun to watch them when they're spraying the ball, piling on run after run and putting together big innings. But that is RARE. (They're 10th in the ML in home runs, with 168. They're 27th in on-base percentage, at .327. Meanwhile, the Yankees, whom I fear more than any other team, lead the bigs in OBP by 10 points, at .364. That's huge.)

FIELDING: Brandon Inge makes tremendous plays night in and night out. Pudge is arguably the best catcher in baseball. But Magglio Ordonez in right and Guillen at short make me nervous every time a ball is hit their way. Maggs gets bad jumps and has a below average arm. Carlos is nonchalant -- which helps him a lot in making super tough plays -- but hurts him on the routine ground balls. (He leads the league in errors, with 25.)

What will definitely hurt them:

SPEED: Curtis Granderson is quick, but not terribly fast. Guillen leads the team in steals with 17, but even he looks slow as he rumbles on the basepaths with his pockets hanging out of his pants and his tobacco hanging out of his mouth. Craig Monroe and Marcus Thames aren't slow, but they're not fast. Pudge, ehh... he never runs hard. And then there's Dmitri Young, Maggs, and the slowest of the slow: Sean Casey. Jeez. With each of these guys, any ball hit in the infield, no matter how much it's bobbled, is an out. Maggs got thrown out tonight on a ball thrown over the first baseman's head and virtually into right field. There was no question he should have gone to second. Mario Impemba (of FSN) even said, "And he'll be safe at second." A bit premature, Mario, as the Mariners' catcher ran down the ball and gunned down a bewildered Maggs. And don't get me started on Casey. I can't tell if he's running hard -- perhaps he is -- but he makes Cecil Fielder look like Chet Lemon. Even slow bouncers up the middle -- tough plays for most everyone -- become routine outs. (I won't delve deeply into his gaffe when he got thrown out on a ball hit into left field; I mean, it was a clear case of misunderstanding. But come on. A 5-7-3 putout? Sean, my man. Let's stretch out a little more, or something.)

So there you have it. What to expect, what to worry about, what to hope they improve upon and what to simply write off as hopeless.

One more thing's for sure: It's going to be a hell of a month.

The secret to Tiger's success

Tiger Woods. What a fun athlete to watch.

I've caught him on TV in each of his last five starts, and he's won every time. Some people dislike golf on television, saying it's dry, it's boring. Some may find it even more boring when you know exactly who is going to win each week. But if you truly appreciate the game of golf, watching Tiger Woods is the furthest thing from a yawn.

With a big lead, with a small lead, when he's tied, when he's down ... he's still going to win, and if you bet against him, you're, well, an idiot.

Some people think Tiger wins all the time because he's so much more talented than anyone else on the PGA Tour, but in actuality, Tiger wins because he's so much smarter than anyone else on tour.

Don't get me wrong: Tiger is a mega-talent. Not too many players can shape the ball like he does. Few possess his creativity. But Tiger makes his money because of where he chooses to aim and where he chooses to miss. Yes, he chooses to miss.

When he has a four-shot lead on Sunday, there is absolutely zero chance of him blowing it. He aims for the center of the green, and he always hits it. Then, on his putts, he misses on the pro side of the cup more often than not. (For you non-golfers, the pro side is the high side of the break, which means if the ball is close to the cup, it still has a chance to fall down into the hole. If it misses on the other side, there is no chance for it to fall.) Tiger also has impeccable pace on his putts, so he rarely leaves himself a tough come-backer. On top of that, he tends to leave himself an uphill putt coming back instead of a downhill one, more difficult.

These simple actions add up. Tiger does them every time, which is why he wins more than everyone else.

Now let's look at a guy like Phil Mickelson. He doesn't win as often as Tiger. But it's not for a lack of talent. Players, caddies and golf experts will all tell you that Big Philly Style has mad game. He might even be a better shot maker than Tiger (at times). But he doesn't have half the head game, and that explains why Tiger has 12 major wins and Mick only three. Phil misses close putts. (One of the golf analysts this weekend said Tiger hadn't missed a four-foot putt all year.) Phil hits driver when he should hit 3 iron. And because he's great around the greens, he often tries for the spectacular chip to within a foot of the hole, when the right shot is actually the safe one, the chip to within 20 feet of the hole, smack dab in the middle of the green.

Tiger makes the bewildering flop-shot chips just like Phil. But only when there are more chances for reward than for potential danger.

Tiger is a machine. There's no getting inside his head. As Dan Patrick used to say, "You can't stop him, you can only hope to contain him." At just 30 years old, everyone else on tour will be doing their best to contain him for another 20 years. That's what's so scary. His best rounds are still ahead of him.