Good for Chauncey, but ...

I'm sure many other Detroit Pistons fans can relate to the bittersweet emotions I felt last night as I watched Chauncey Billups torch the Hornets for 36 points, leading his team to a blowout victory in Game 1 of the NBA Playoffs.

Mr. Big Shot was undeniably the best player on the floor, knocking down eight of his nine 3s and controlling the tempo from start to finish. Better than Chris Paul. Far better than teammate Carmelo Anthony. Smooth as silk.

Only he was wearing the wrong shade of blue.

Isn't it still hard to come to grips with that out-of-nowhere trade orchestrated by Pistons GM Joe Dumars in November? You know, the one that sent the seemingly over-the-hill Billups to Denver for that egotistical punk who wouldn't know the meaning of team basketball if it were tattooed directly onto his skull, Allen Iverson.

I hear all the noise about creating salary cap space -- and yada yada yada. To me, though, that's just unnecessary chess-game maneuvering when the simple move was to keep all the pieces in place.

What ever happened to the here and now? Was it really implausible to picture the Pistons back in the Conference Finals, led by Chauncey, perhaps driven by more late-May urgency than they exhibited during the past three seasons?

Not at all. Even with no big roster moves, the Pistons were still among the top four contenders in an improved Eastern Conference. And remember: Chauncey is still only 32. He's no Jason Kidd, writing the last chapter of his career. He's more like Kobe: A star who still has a lot of life and a lot of wins left in him. The most valuable player on one of the NBA's five elite teams.

And all the Pistons can do is feel good for him. He, more than anyone else, made them who are -- or, more accurately, who they were. While Ben Wallace gave the Pistons their toughness, it was Chauncey who delivered the swagger. He made them such a close-knit and trusting team. He instilled the confidence that brought them to the Eastern Conference Finals for six straight years. He also had a unique relationship with the city of Detroit. He went out of his way to relate to and look out for the people there. They still revere him the way they revered Isiah Thomas and Joe Dumars when they played.

I wonder how Dumars feels about the trade now. Clearly the AI experiment was more catastrophic than he could have feared. Have Chauncey's accomplishments in Denver, then, caused Joe D to second-guess his deal?

I sure would hope so. I can't label this managerial decision as his worst (see Milicic, Darko), but it's definitely a close second.

And meanwhile, Mr. Big Shot flourishes. It's a beautiful thing. Shortly after the trade, with Detroit Free Press columnist Michael Rosenberg, Chauncey talked about being sucker-punched by reality:

“After my last trade, when I got traded from Denver to Orlando (in 2000), I vowed to never let my hands down and get caught like that again. That was two or three times already in my young career. I vowed to never put my hands down, to get comfortable again.

“I allowed myself to do that again. And I think it was because of what we’d done there, man … the team, the success we had, me signing a long-term deal. I allowed myself to say, ‘Damn, I think I’m done. I think I’m here. I think it’s over.’ I’m kicking myself for letting my guard down.”

Now Dumars has to be kicking himself for doubting the colossal heart of a true champion.

2009 NBA Playoffs predictions

The NBA Playoffs arrive each year with a quiet buzz -- if you compare them to the NCAA tournament that has just ended two weeks before.

They are full of drama, intriguing matchups and compelling storylines, yet they don't grip the nation collectively quite like March Madness does. And that's fine. Those who appreciate the Playoffs don't need moral support. They're just glad it's here.

Which brings me to why I'm here: To pick, correctly, each of the 15 series that are about to play out over the next two months. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE QUARTERFINALS

No. 1 Cleveland over No. 8 Detroit in 5 

No. 2 Boston over No. 7 Chicago in 5

No. 6 Philadelphia over No. 3 Orlando in 7

No. 5 Miami over No. 4 Atlanta in 7

EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

Cleveland over Miami in 6

Boston over Philadelphia in 6

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

Cleveland over Boston in 7

WESTERN CONFERENCE QUARTERFINALS

No. 1 Los Angeles over No. 8 Utah in 5

No. 2 Denver over No. 7 New Orleans in 6

No. 6 Dallas over No. 3 San Antonio in 7

No. 4 Portland over No. 5 Houston in 7

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

Los Angeles over Portland in 6

Denver over Dallas in 6

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

Los Angeles over Denver in 6

NBA FINALS

Here's where I get crossed up. On one hand, I'd like to think this is LeBron's coronation. On the other, I find it hard to pick against Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson, who both have something to prove. Kobe has never won a ring without Shaq. Phil has never won a ring with as little talent as he currently has. Ultimately, it comes down to who plays better between LeBron and Kobe -- and that's what makes the NBA what it is: Spectacular matchups between players with overwhelming skills. And I'm taking LeBron.

Cleveland over Los Angeles in 7

Yes, it's a sad day when I haven't picked my beloved Pistons to wear the crown. But their run is done. Time for a new King. I just hope he stays in Cleveland and doesn't bolt to the big market. That would be bad for the game.

How the Pistons can beat the Cavs

It’s difficult – darn near impossible – to convince myself that the Pistons have a Hook’s chance in Neverland of beating Cleveland in the NBA Playoffs. If I were a betting man, then I would wager profusely against Detroit in the first round, which begins Saturday.

But after a reassuring conversation I had last evening with my good friend Brandon, I am holding out a tiny, microscopic shred of hope for the team that has been to six straight Eastern Conference Finals. It involves an extreme – although not entirely foreign – gameplan. It relies on a lot of “ifs.” And it assumes that the league MVP – Cleveland megastar LeBron James – will not like the strategy one bit:

Hack the molasses out of him. Foul him so hard that the ink from his tattoos flees his body out of fear. Make his life in the halfcourt so miserable that he'll resort to taking those off-balance fadeaway jumpers that from time to time find the net but in reality bring his shooting percentage way down.

Effectively, Detroit must raid the castle and remove the crown from atop The King's head.

When LeBron dropped 48 on the Pistons in Game 5 of the ’07 Conference Finals, he got into the lane at will and suffered no consequences. It was a surprising sight to see the Pistons – long heralded as the best defensive team in the East – side-stepping the LeBron train and allowing him to score easy buckets. For Detroit fans, it was the most painful game to watch in the past seven years – aside from the Game 7 Finals loss to the Spurs in ’05.

That cannot happen this time around. If it does, Cleveland could be breaking out the brooms, and the Pistons’ reign as an Eastern powerhouse will officially be over. To avoid it, the Pistons must revisit the mindset they used to win their first NBA title 20 years ago.

They must become the Bad Boys again.

When Bill Laimbeer, Rick Mahorn and the other Detroit players of the late ‘80s took the floor, they brought with them a rugged mentality that said: “Nothing easy in our lane. No backing down.” Opponents feared them more than any other team in the league.

While Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess and the rest of the current Pistons don’t own the identity as the most physical team in the league, it’s never too late to adopt it. And I believe that’s the only way they can steal this series – by sacrificing their bodies to take charges, by bringing LeBron to the ground before he can get into the air, by every player using all six of his fouls.

Because the Pistons just aren’t as talented as they used to be. And with Chauncey Billups gone (tear), the team chemistry has suffered greatly. But, somewhere deep down, they still have that collective swagger and the real belief that they can win. If they can inject a hint of doubt into the Cavs by winning Game 1 or 2 in Cleveland, then the series will all of a sudden become intriguing.

This will be a colossal task. LeBron, after all, is the most impressive sports figure – athletically – that exists. He may be the most athletically intimidating human to ever play any sport. Size, speed, strength, power, agility, flexibility, elasticity – he’s got it all. On top of that, he is the consummate team player – a characteristic that not all superstars possess.

He has absolutely earned the MVP trophy he will receive next month.

But LeBron has yet to demonstrate what most other sports legends have, and that's the ability to ignore every distraction and every disconcerting circumstance standing between him and his goal – and then go out and overcome it.

Jordan overcame extreme flu conditions and massive fatigue to drop 38 on the Jazz in the Finals.

Nicklaus overcame an extended absence from the spotlight and a dwindling game to triumph at the '86 Masters.

Aaron overcame life-threatening racial persecution during his pursuit of Babe Ruth's record – and then he hit No. 715.

Two years ago, if the Pistons had employed this pound-LeBron-until-his-knees-hurt strategy, I don’t think he would have reacted well. He would have whined, drawn technicals, committed turnovers and crumbled to the point that Detroit would have advanced to the Finals.

But LeBron has matured tenfold since then, and his game is much more multi-faceted. He also has the best supporting cast of his career at his disposal, and that’s why the Cavs enter the Playoffs with the league’s best record. It’s entirely possible that LeBron will look past whatever gameplan the Pistons throw his way – however extreme – and still dictate the tempo.

Remember this, though: The Pistons remain a team that, deep down, no one wants to face. You can’t tell me the Cavs wouldn’t have rather seen Chicago or Philadelphia in this opening round. Those teams haven’t been to the top. Detroit has, and what is more, the Pistons have always managed to elevate their level of play in the postseason.

There are other reasons to believe Detroit won’t play like a No. 8 seed: After some late-season injuries, they’re healthy again. With Allen Iverson out of the picture, that horrendous experiment is no longer a distraction. Most importantly, the Pistons still have a tremendous amount of pride. They remember 2007, and they want revenge. They know that failing to reach the Conference Finals again would mean the end of an era – and, probably, the dismantling of a roster. They badly want to beat the Cavs, and they think they can do it.

But, of course, this all hinges on the Pistons playing like the Pistons of yesteryear – even the Pistons of last May – which were a far cry from the discombobulated bunch of red and blue that trotted out to the hardwood all regular season long. They weren’t quite as pathetic as the Detroit squads who wore teal last decade, but they were the worst Pistons team since the first year of the Joe Dumars GM era (2000-2001).

That can all be forgotten with a win over the Cavs this postseason. But it'll take a magical Bad Boys resurgence. Maybe Laimbeer and Mahorn have a few more games left in them.